Twins Killings: Francisco Liriano Gives Me Something to Write About
Francisco Liriano threw a no-hitter last night against the Chicago White Sox, which has since thrown me into something of a moral quandary. The stat-nerd in me sees things that makes me not be remotely happy or excited about the no hitter, while the die-hard Twins fan in me wants to jump for joy and celebrate that one of our pitchers just achieved a memorable feat in baseball, against possibly our most hated rival no less.
Unfortunately, as in most cases, the stat-nerd has won out. While I am happy for Francisco Liriano and the Twins for picking up a victory, I’m finding it hard to really be excited about this no-hitter, for a few different reasons.
The first is that I can’t quite bring myself to care about no-hitters anymore in general. Giving up no hits is certainly a cool accomplishment, and one that the pitcher can remember and brag about for the rest of his life. But, too often, no-hitters aren’t really indicative of any extra skill on the pitcher’s part. The list of pitchers who have thrown no-hitters is a jumbled one, seemingly consisting of players drawn randomly out of a hat. There have been some incredibly dominant no-hitters, but there have also been some that were mostly a product of luck, good defense, and poor hitting — none of which the pitcher has control over.
Liriano’s no-hitter certainly falls into the latter category. Because, despite giving up no hits, Liriano was arguably not pitching all that well in the game. He had trouble finding the strike zone, only throwing 11 first pitch strikes to the 30 batters he faced while walking six. He wasn’t really missing bats, as evidenced by his mere two strikeouts. He mostly got by by throwing it over the plate and having the White Sox hit the ball poorly or make bad contact. This could be evident of some skill of Liriano’s, but generally a truly dominant pitching performance is one where the pitcher is getting a lot of strikeouts and controlling the strike-zone, neither of which Liriano did.
The storyline on ESPN after the game was how unlikely it is that Liriano, who entered the game with an ERA over 9, would throw a no hitter. It raised the question of what Liriano had done differently to get the no hitter, and which Liriano would show up the rest of the season. The truth is, the Liriano that threw the no-hitter is the same guy who has struggled so mightily all this season — he was just much luckier and facing a much poorer lineup.
The other issue I had with the no hitter was that Liriano, in my opinion, never should have had a chance to get it. As mentioned, despite the lack of hits allowed, Liriano wasn’t pitching particularly effectively. That’s why I think it was a terrible decision to send Liriano out for the 9th inning.
Liriano has a long history of arm problems that have hampered him for most of his career. To send him out for the 9th and have him throw over 120 pitches in the game was reckless of Ron Gardenhire, and I can only hope that it doesn’t have any negative consequences for Liriano and the Twins in the future.
In addition to jeopardizing Liriano’s health, Gardenhire also jeopardized the Twins chances at winning the game. With just a one run lead, it was a fairly critical mistake to send out Liriano and his 100 pitches over a fresh arm out of the bullpen. The Twins are in last place right now. They need to be focused on winning baseball games, not on getting sentimental achievements. And sending out Liriano almost certainly lowered the Twins’ chances at winning that game.
Fortunately, things did work out for the Twins, and Francisco Liriano can one day tell his grandchildren that he fired a no-hitter. While it is diminished slightly, it’s still a no-hitter, and that is a rare achievement and something to be proud of no matter what. But make no mistake: Francisco Liriano did not pitch a particularly great game against the White Sox. He is still not close to where he was last year and Twins fans should still be highly concerned about his current effectiveness. But at least it gave us something to think about for a day other than the Twins losing horribly.
A Very Small Microphone 
hamsterjockey said,
May 4, 2011 at 5:10 pm
I completely agree with you in the fact that even though he did give up no hits, the prestige that comes with throwing a no-hitter is washed out by the fact that he only had two strikeouts and gave up six walks. It was last year that Edwin Jackson, the White Sox pitcher against Liriano last night threw a no-hitter. He struck out six batters while walking eight. I think that both of these no-hitters shouldn’t really be looked at as a “feat” because of the number of baserunners that were allowed by both pitchers.
The point that you brought up about ESPN bringing up how his (Liriano) ERA was about 9.13 before the no-hitter is a very valid point because who knows what Liriano the Twins will see for the rest of the season. He was great when he first started, then he’s tapered off since then, with last season being an exception. He used to be so dominant, especially in terms of over-powering hitters and striking them out, but as we know, that wasn’t the case this for this game.
Personally, I’m not a Twins fan. I bleed Cubbie blue, and I’m happy that the Twins beat the White Sox, but I feel that the reason why Ron Gardenhire kept Liriano out there to finish the game, even with that high pitch count, was in hopes that it would spark something on a last-place team to get their act together. A few years ago, then-manager Lou Pinella of the Cubs went out to argue a call and got tossed. It wasn’t a bad call in the least, but Pinella went out there to give his team some inspiration to get back on the right track that season, and it actually worked. The Cubs ended up coming from behind and winning the division that year. Pinella’s ejection came a day after Carlos Zambrano and Michael Barrett got into an altercation in the dugout, and frankly Pinella had had enough of the Cubs in his first season with them.
Maybe, just maybe, this no-hitter will spark something inside the Twins this season, and help them regain their dominant form that they have shown throughout the past years.
H said,
May 4, 2011 at 8:03 pm
You really wouldn’t have sent him out for the 9th? Yeah maybe it would have lowered our chances of winning, because yes he wasn’t overly effective and was wearing out, but isn’t that the spot to take a gamble?
You see to be forgetting that baseball is inhabited by people, not numbers.
Say you’re facing a tough lefty in the 8th inning. Your hitter has a 120 OPS+ against lefties. You have a guy on the bench who’s hitting at a 125 OPS+ against lefties. You pinch hit, it’s statistically advantageous. But that ignores intangible factors such as the continuity of the game, the slap in the face to a guy who has been crushing lefties all year, and the fact that one guy has been on the bench all game
Similarly, pulling Liriano ignores intangible factors such as this team had a .333 winning percentage going into the game, and F-Bomb himself a 9.14 ERA. No, the no hitter doesn’t REALLY mean anything you can measure, but baseball is a game of confidence and hot streaks, and if a no hitter can get the team and Liriano going, then you have to send him out there.
And pitch counts do not equate to pitcher’s health. You know that. It has more to do with making lots of high intensity pitches. And Liriano scattered the 6 walks. Also playing in the bandbox U.S Cellular Field, he did not come close to allowing a home run.
And maybe the White Sox offense is struggling, but they are still stacked with accomplished hitters. Liriano had to get Konerko, Quentin, Rios, Beckham, Ramirez, Dunn out several times each.
I mean, I know ESPN is going to try and present the no hitter as flukey and luck driven and that the phantom call mattered (It would not have affected the no hitter, lest we forget), but I figured a hometown blogger would know a little better.
H said,
May 4, 2011 at 8:07 pm
I hate Dave Cameron, but http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/appreciating-francisco-lirianos-no-hitter/
joshe24 said,
May 4, 2011 at 10:12 pm
Obviously just saying the pitch count was oversimplifying things… but I still don’t like keeping Liriano there in the 9th. It was, in my opinion, an unnecessary risk. I don’t think his confidence is shattered if Gardy tells him good job and pulls him and the Twins hold on to the win. Similarly, I don’t think this no hitter is going to suddenly escalate his confidence and make him into a different pitcher.
Obviously these are players and I may sometimes be guilty of relying too much on numbers. But I think most of these intangible factors you point out would show up in the statistics if they were actually relevant.
I do think my article was possibly overly negative, but that was just kind of the mood I was in since I had mostly read “omg Francisco Liriano!” type reactions. Pretty much all significant baseball accomplishments are due to luck in some way or another, and, as I said, a no hitter is still a great accomplishment and something to be proud of . I just want people to realize that it’s not necessarily a sign of great things to come for Liriano or the Twins.
H said,
May 4, 2011 at 10:40 pm
Ha I was on the opposite end of the spectrum. I missed all the ZOMG reactions and only got the ESPN one, which basically just focused on HOW UNLIKELY it was (Despite his 2.95 xFIP from 2010) and during the recap showed ZERO clips of him showing pitching skill, while honing in on the missed call that wouldn’t have even broken up the no hitter. Of course had he pitched against the Yankees it would have been faaar more legitimate, right?
But yeah, I’m still not too optimistic about Liriano. Because it’s always 3 things with struggling pitchers: Age, injury or confidence. He’s either hurt or out of whack mentally, and if it’s the latter, maybe he has a chance to use this no hitter as a jumping off point. But when he can’t strike out 3 batters in a lineup with Adam Dunn and Alexei Ramirez in it, I’m concerned he’s hurt.